Economic Rivalries Take Center Stage
Rising tensions between major economies are now considered the top risk to global stability, according to the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Global Risks Report 2026. The report, released ahead of the WEF’s annual Davos meeting, surveyed over 1,300 leaders from business, government, academia, and civil society.
Geoeconomic confrontation—which includes sanctions, tariffs, and other economic measures—outranked misinformation, societal polarisation, extreme weather, and armed conflict as the most pressing threat for the year ahead. Half of respondents expect a turbulent world over the next two years, up from 36% last year, while only 9% anticipate stability and just 1% foresee calm. Looking a decade ahead, most experts predict prolonged global instability.
WEF Managing Director Saadia Zahidi called the report “an early warning system,” noting that rising competition, unchecked technological change, and growing debt could exacerbate risks—but stressed that “none of these risks are a foregone conclusion.”
Supply Chains and Global Markets at Risk
Geoeconomic tensions also topped the rankings for severity, with 18% of respondents naming them the most likely trigger for a global crisis in 2026. State-based armed conflict came second in likelihood but dropped in importance over a two-year horizon.
The report warns that escalating economic clashes threaten supply chains, global trade, and the international cooperation needed to weather shocks. Recent US trade policies, including broad tariffs on imports, have disrupted global commerce and put pressure on both businesses and consumers. Meanwhile, 68% of respondents expect a “multipolar or fragmented order” over the next decade, reflecting growing geopolitical uncertainty.
Economic risks such as downturns, inflation, mounting debt, and potential asset bubbles all jumped in the rankings, highlighting the fragility of the global financial system amid rising geoeconomic confrontations.
Technology, Society, and the Environment in Focus
Beyond economic risks, misinformation and disinformation ranked second for near-term global threats, while cyber insecurity placed sixth. The report highlighted artificial intelligence as a rapidly growing concern, climbing from 30th to fifth in the long-term outlook due to potential impacts on jobs, society, and security.
Societal polarisation and inequality were also prominent, with inequality noted as the most interconnected risk for the second consecutive year. Environmental risks fell slightly in the short-term rankings but dominate the long-term outlook. Extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and critical changes to Earth systems were seen as the most severe threats over the next decade, with 75% of respondents expecting a turbulent environmental future.
Zahidi emphasized the importance of global cooperation: “The challenges highlighted in this report—from geopolitical shocks and rapid technological change to climate instability, societal strife, and economic risks—underscore both the scale of potential perils and our shared responsibility to shape what comes next.”
